How to Count Cards

Modifying Your Bets and Knowing When To Hit or Stay When You Have a High or Low True Count is Critical

How to Count Cards

So you know how to count cards now? Great! Now we need to learn how to utilize this information in a way that gives us an advantage over the casino and allows us to beat the casino at its own game. One of the biggest ways that we obtain an advantage is through our betting. We bet more when we have an advantage and less (or not at all) when we do not. When the true count is high we bet a lot. When the true count is negative or low we do not. I definitely go on some very long bathroom breaks when I see that the count is going very negative. I let the other players at the table play it out, and usually when I get back half their stack is gone and they give me dirty looks. It is worth is though. You only have a slight edge over the casino so you need to seize any advantage that you can.

I use a progressive betting strategy and start increasing my bet when the true count gets to +3. It’s at this point that you start to have an advantage. I am going to consider a “unit” to be the amount that you are normally betting when the count is not in your favor. So a “unit” may be $5, 25, $100… it really doesn’t matter. At a true count of plus three I am betting two units. At plus four bet three units. At plus five and higher bet the true count in units. Therefore:

True Count of +2 or less = 1 unit

+3 = 2 units

+4 = 3 units

+5 = 5 units

+6 = 6 units

+7 = 7 units

etc...

In multiple deck games you may find it necessary to vary your bet even more when the true count gets high. You might have to wade through a lot of shoes to finally get to a situation that you can really capitalize on in a 6 or 8 deck game. If you can get away with betting $5 when the count is low and spread that out to $100 or $200 a hand when the true count gets to a +5 or so than by all means do it.

You also need to learn some important deviations from basic strategy according to the count. The mathematically favorable move depends a lot on how many high cards are left in the shoe. Here are the blackjack deviations to memorize:

  • Take insurance if the true count is +3 or higher. (A lot of people will claim that you should never take insurance or that you should only take it if you have a really good hand but this is absolutely incorrect)
  • 16 vs. 10 – stand with any positive running count
  • · 16 vs. 9 – stand if true count is +5 or higher
  • · 15 vs. 10 – stand if true count is +4 or higher
  • · 13 vs. 2 – hit with any negative running count
  • · 13 vs. 3 – hit if the true count is -1 or lower
  • · 12 vs. 2 – stand if the true count is +4 or higher
  • · 12 vs. 3 – stand if the true count is +2 or higher
  • · 12 vs. 4 – hit with a negative running count
  • · 12 vs. 5 – hit with a negative running count
  • · 12 vs. 6 – hit with a negative running count. (Other people at the table may throw a fit if you’re hitting twelve against four, five and six but just ignore them. Just ignore them or say “there was a lot more cards that could have helped me than hurt me.”
  • · 11 vs. Ace – double down with true +1 or higher
  • · 10 vs. Ace – double if true +4 or higher
  • · 10 vs. 10 – double if true +4 or higher
  • · 9 vs. 7 – double if true +4 or higher
  • · 9 vs. 2 – double if true +1 or higher
  • · Split 10’s against a 5 or 6 with true +5 or higher

    • I touched on it above… but these moves go against basic strategy. Some basic strategy players who are jerks and think that they know everything will give you crap for making some of these moves. Just ignore them. You are a lot better player than they are or probably ever will be.

    The really motivated blackjack student can also memorize the following deviations:

  • 11 vs. 10 – hit instead of doubling down if the true count is less than -4
  • 10 vs. 9 – hit instead of doubling down if the true count is -1 or less
  • 9 vs. 5 – hit instead of doubling with true -4 or less
  • 9 vs. 4 – hit instead of doubling with true -2 or less
  • 9 vs. 3 – hit instead of doubling with any negative running count
  • 8 vs. 6 – double with true 2 or higher
  • 8 vs. 5 – double with true 4 or higher
  • Ace, 8 vs. 6 – double if true 1 or higher
  • Ace, 8 vs. 5 – double if true 2 or higher
  • Ace, 8 vs. 4 – double if true 3 or higher
  • Ace, 7 vs. 2 – double down with +1 or higher
  • Ace, 5 vs. 4 – hit instead of doubling with any negative count
  • Ace, 4 vs. 4 – hit instead of doubling with any negative count
  • Ace, 3 vs. 5 – hit instead of doubling if true -1 or lower
  • Ace, 2 vs. 5 – hit instead of doubling with any negative count
  • Ace, 3 vs. 6 – hit instead of doubling if true count is less than -1

    • Next... check out some thoughts about choosing a good casino, getting caught counting cards and LOSING.

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